Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.