A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
